MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, March 28: Advice, strategy for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy baseball contests

first_imgSPM. Tanaka (R)[email protected] 1:05A. Cashner (R)$93000%$94002.2%$44–While Tanaka has had some inconsistent moments, this is all about the lineup he’s facing. The Orioles had one of the highest strikeout rates last year and have replaced some of the veteran sluggishness with youth and inexperience. Baltimore is not expected to win many games this year or score many runs, and that all starts here on Opening Day. And talk about run support for Tanaka — the Bombers are primed to tee off on Andrew Cashner, so the win is more than just likely. 3BA. Bregman (R)[email protected] 4:00B. Snell (L)$490010.7%$42007.8%$23–It’s always tough to go up against the reigning Cy Young winner, but Bregman’s numbers against lefty pitching are almost too good to pass up regardless of who’s on the bump. A .413 wOBA and .969 OPS against southpaws last year should immediately have Bregman on your radar for cash games. Note: This is a FREE full preview of Fantasy Alarm’s MLB DFS Playbook for opening day (Thursday, March 28). For full analysis every day and more ways to crush your daily fantasy baseball competition, check out DFS site-specific advice and the rest of Fantasy Alarm’s great season-long and DFS tools available to subscribers.Watch ChangeUp, a new MLB live whip-around show on DAZN SST. Story (R)[email protected] 4:10J. Ureña (R)$50008.3%$44009.6%$21–Coming off a career-year, Story is looking to keep the momentum rolling with a strong start to the 2019 season. He’s a fantastic blend of power and speed and should have no trouble squaring off against Jose Urena in Miami. For this price, you’d like to see a start in Coors Field, but it’s tough to complain about his bat in the heart of the order against a team that is expected to lose and lose big a lot. SSJ. Polanco (B)[email protected] 4:10C. Kluber (R)$300013.9%$32004.4%$17–If you’re looking to pay down at the position, then Polanco makes for an intriguing option. We’ve all seen Corey Kluber have his struggles in April and Polanco, after he returned from his suspension last year, posted a .375 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’s got solid plate discipline, makes good contact and tens to keep the ball in-play a lot. You’re not looking for him to be a world-beater at this price, but a couple of hits and maybe a run scored or an RBI or two are within the realm of possibility. SPH. Ryu (L)[email protected] 4:10Z. Greinke (R)$920011.8%$85004.5%$37–Once health was established last season, Ryu was one of the best on the mound, posting a 1.97 ERA with a 9.73 K/9. He’ll face longtime foe Arizona, but these are certainly not the same Diamondbacks he’s used to as Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are gone. Not to mention, they just lost Steven Souza to a serious knee injury. You should get plenty of bang for your buck here. SPB. Keller (R)[email protected] 4:15C. Rodón (L)$48006.4%$62005.1%$28–We like Keller for GPP tournaments today, primarily on DK as the second starter. His price tag is going to offer huge salary relief and while he’s not normally a big strikeout guy, the White Sox lineup he faces is riddled with high-strikeout potential. Last season, they posted a league-worst 26.3-percent K-rate overall and a league-worst 25.8-percent mark against right-handers alone. There just aren’t enough names to have changed in the lineup to think the results will be much different. SPE. Lauer (L)[email protected] 4:10M. Bumgarner (L)$56007.3%$72002.7%$25–Things really seemed to click for Lauer late in the season last year and he finished with a 3.15 ERA in the second half with an increased K/9 that jumped nearly a full strikeout per inning (up to 8.65). He may be a little amped up today being as how this is his very first Opening Day start, but this Giants lineup is bereft of talent as Buster Posey and Evan Longoria seem like the only real veteran threats to him. If you’re looking to save salary, these new-look Padres are going to be a fun team to watch and Lauer could be helping to lead the charge today. CJ. Realmuto (R)[email protected] 3:05J. Teheran (R)$45000%$35001.2%$18–Realmuto has already made a strong impression on his new team, and he’s going to take it another step further today against the Braves in his first home game. He’s got a sweet swing and posted a .382 wOBA with a .875 OPS against right-handed pitching last year on a dismal Marlins team where he barely saw good pitches to hit. Now he’s in the heart of one of the top lineups in the league and hitting in a bandbox in Philly. 2BC. Hernández (B)[email protected] 3:05J. Teheran (R)$36000%$29001.1%$16–He’ll hit further down in the order than we’d normally like, but from the left side of the plate, Hernandez can do some yeoman’s work against a guy like Julio Teheran who routinely struggles against lefty bats. The Phillies are expected to put some runs up on the board and Hernandez should find himself getting a piece of that action even from the bottom third of the order. 1BJ. Smoak (B)[email protected] 3:37J. Zimmermann (R)$36000%$32003.3%$15–Jordan Zimmermann has trouble keeping the ball in the yard and the switch-hitting Smoak loves to power up at the Rogers Centre. He’s priced down in comparison to some of the other hard-hitting first basemen which should make him an intriguing option, especially when you look at those ISO numbers against right-handers. 1BM. Cabrera (R)[email protected] 3:37M. Stroman (R)$39000%$33000.4%$17–He may not be the Miggy of old and this Tigers lineup might not be what it once was, I expect a bounce-back season for the veteran first baseman. He’s always been a tremendous, well-disciplined hitter and now with full-health, a match-up against an always struggling Marcus Stroman and a game in hitter-friendly Toronto, it looks like the comeback will start here. CFG. Springer (R)[email protected] 4:00B. Snell (L)$430010%$38007.2%$22–Another tough attempt at facing Blake Snell, but Springer has routinely posted strong numbers against left-handed pitching. The Astros are loaded with talent and there are always opportunities for Springer to drive in some runs, so if they can manage to squeeze out a strong couple of innings against the reigning Cy Young, he could be a nice play. CF. Cervelli (R)[email protected] 4:10L. Castillo (R)$34009.3%$29002.6%$15–Luis Castillo seemed to turn things around for himself last year, but his season was saved by facing some real weak hitting in September. A look at his numbers throughout the year point towards a lot of inconsistency and Cervelli is just the type of hitter to take full advantage of any mistakes that come his way. He’s mad consistent against both lefties and righties and the game played in Great American Smallpark will be a nice boost to his power potential. 1BL. Voit (R)[email protected] 1:05A. Cashner (R)$45000%$35006.1%$14–Word is that Voit will handle DH duties for the Yankees today against good ol’ Andrew Crashner (not a typo). His power display last year when he came over to the Yankees (14 HR in 132 AB) was unbelievable and immediately had people forgetting about the whole Greg Bird debacle. He can be prone to the strikeout which makes him more of a GPP play, but how do you ignore that .424 wOBA and 1.046 OPS he posted against right-handed pitching last year? You don’t. 1BM. Muncy (L)[email protected] 4:10Z. Greinke (R)$46005.4%$36004.5%$20–Some might be skeptical of the sudden power display Muncy put on last year and while his strikeout rate was a little high, he also proved to be somewhat disciplined as well, given that high walk rate he also posted. Muncy makes for an interesting GPP play given his power potential, especially against right-handers, but look for a strong battle back and forth between him and Zack Greinke. I expect him to be the consummate sink or swim, but that price on FD might help convince you. LFE. Rosario (L)[email protected] 4:10C. Kluber (R)$35008.4%$31001.2%$16–Maybe it’s the fact that he’s facing Kluber today, but how does a guy like Rosario, who is posting a .361 wOBA and .837 OPS against righties, sit with a price tag this low? The more I think about Kluber’s early-season struggles in years past and the more I see prices like this on some Twins today, I’m thinking contrarian stack possibilities. 1BP. Goldschmidt (R)[email protected] 2:10J. Chacín (R)$47000%$42005.5%$22–He’s already made a huge impression on his new club this spring and everyone is all smiles after he committed to the club for a a five-year extension. He posted an OPS north of .900 against right-handed pitching last year and we just don’t see Jhoulys Chaccin keeping his bat down in hitter-friendly Miller Park. You’re obviously paying a heavy price and some may be wary of Goldy’s slow start last year, but he proved that was all in his rearview mirror as the rest of his season proved beyond fruitful. I expect to have him locked into my cash lineups today. Happy opening day! The long, cold winter has finally passed; the blanket of snow has lifted; the frozen tundra has thawed; and like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, baseball (and daily fantasy baseball) is back, baby! Now the question is — is that moist, green organic that our feet tread upon simply the springtime grass or giant stacks of cash just waiting to be frolicked in by savvy MLB DFS players?Eloquent enough for you? Good. Now let’s get down to business. CB. Posey (R)[email protected] 4:10E. Lauer (L)$390012.2%$26004.1%$15–While we like Lauer for his first start of the season, we’re not expecting a complete shutdown of the Giants. Posey is a strong veteran presence on this team and traditionally hits lefties well. In similar fashion to what was written just above, if playing on FD, I’d rather invest the extra $100 in Contreras, but if playing on DK, there’s a nice savings here. RFY. Puig (R)[email protected] 4:10J. Taillon (R)$41007.4%$32001.5%$16–While Jameson Taillon is a favorite of many, so is Puig. There are high expectations for the enigmatic slugger here in Cincinnati, especially with a .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Great American is going to be a fun ballpark for him to hit in and a hot start would certainly endear him to his new fan-base. If this guy can keep his head right, the sky’s the limit for him in the Queen City. 2BB. Miller (L)[email protected] 4:10J. Berríos (R)$30001.1%$21000%$7–He’s a sink-or-swim GPP dart. Miller has the potential to take any right-handed pitcher deep, but he could just as easily post an 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. This is purely a salary punt move if you’re looking to get a Yankees stack or something in your lineup. 3BK. Bryant (R)[email protected] 4:05M. Minor (L)$540012.5%$380019.5%$22–His back and shoulder are good to go and it’s time for Bryant to get back on top where he belongs. He absolutely tees off on left-handed pitching and should have a great time facing Mike Minor in a bandbox like Arlington. He’s priced up accordingly on DK, but this cost on FD could make him a huge steal. He’ll make for a great cash game play there as we expect the ownership to be high. 2BW. Merrifield (R)[email protected] 4:15C. Rodón (L)$450016.6%$410011.4%$21–Second base is a tough position to nail down today, so it may be worth your while to try and fit Merrifield’s salary in there. His numbers against lefties have been fantastic — .411 wOBA, .944 OPS — and he can offer you a little bit of speed in a Royals lineup we expect to do a ton of running. Rodon can get rattled easily on the mound, so if the Royals put men on in front of Merrifield, it could be a wildly productive day. CFM. Trout (R)[email protected] 4:07M. Fiers (R)$560033.6%$480017.7%$25–One might say it goes against the Laws of Baseball to not use Trout on Opening Day today. A brand new contract and a match-up against Mike Fiers? Damn. How do you pass that up? The price tag is tough to squeeze in, but come on….the guy posted a .468 wOBA with an insane 1.118 OPS against right-handed pitching last year. He’s the best in the game and even without Justin Upton hitting behind him, he should be well-worth your attention. CW. Contreras (R)[email protected] 4:05M. Minor (L)$44006%$27005%$13–Contreras has a nice history against left-handed pitching and has posted some very favorable numbers, including a career .370 wOBA against them. His power also seems to blossom more against southpaws, as evidenced by his .212 career ISO mark against them. Couple that with Mike Minors struggles as a starter in general, float in the bandbox in Arlington and you’ve a nice option behind the plate. I’d rather pay up for Realmuto on DK, but if playing on FD, he’s an $800 savings. 3BT. Shaw (L)[email protected] 2:10M. Mikolas (R)$40000%$34004.6%$16–While I do like Miles Mikolas on the bump in this match-up, the lefty-swinging Shaw brings a tremendous amount of power to the table along with a bit of salary relief at a position most people are going to pay up at. His splits against lefties and righties we very strong and that .384 wOBA vs RHP really jumps off the page, especially given the hitter-friendly dimensions of Miller Park. SSA. Mondesi (B)[email protected] 4:15C. Rodón (L)$45006.5%$38009.7%$18–Mondesi posted an .834 OPS against left-handed pitching last year and should continue to be a strong on-base presence against Carlos Rodon. The Royals are going to be playing a lot of small ball and like we said above for Merrifield, Rodon can be rattled easily if he’s allowing base-runners. Mondesi offers more speed than power, but that’s exactly what we’re looking for when we put Royals into our lineups. Welington Castillo is going to have a tough time behind the plate for Chicago all day long. SSJ. Báez (R)[email protected] 4:05M. Minor (L)$480018.5%$390026%$23–He’s going to get paired up with teammate Kris Bryant in quite a number of lineups, and rightfully so. Baez is coming off an amazing season where he posted a .934 OPS against left-handed pitching and now gets to open the year against Mike Minor in Arlington. If you can afford to squeeze him into your lineup, he should offer up a fantastic return. LFJ. Winker (L)[email protected] 4:10J. Taillon (R)$33007.6%$27004%$15–Not only is Winker finally looking at a starting job, but he is also likely to be batting leadoff for the Reeds today. Yes, it’s Taillon, but the lefty-swinging outfielder routinely posts solid numbers against right-handed pitching. And again, how do you not dig on this price tag. Using him and Puig in a GPP on FanDuel will allow you some much bigger bats. 2BA. Frazier (L)[email protected] 4:10L. Castillo (R)$320011.7%$260013.4%$9–He’s always such an underrated bat because he’s not a sexy name and it usually takes an injury or two for him to see consistent at-bats. But the Pirates made an overhaul of their middle infield and Frazier is locked in as their starting second baseman and also likely their leadoff hitter this season. He posted strong numbers against right-handed pitching last season, his price tag is extremely affordable and given the dearth of strong match-ups at the position, he could be locked in as my cash game second baseman. His salary should help me afford some of the bigger bats on both sites. 3BM. Carpenter (L)[email protected] 2:10J. Chacín (R)$46000%$400014.9%$20–Carpenter’s experience and routine numbers against right-handed pitching should have him highly-owned today, though the price tag is definitely a little steep. But what did you expect for a guy who rakes, not just against righties, but in Miller Park as well? He’ll be more favorably looked at on DK, but if playing FD, you may as well save the $200 and use Bryant. CD. Jansen (R)[email protected] 3:37J. Zimmermann (R)$34000%$24003.4%$9–Welcome to the Show, kid! Jansen might be a little over-excited about his first Opening Day in Toronto, but the club has high expectations for their backstop of the future. He might move up in the order a little with the last-minute trade of Kendrys Morales to Oakland which will maybe nab him an extra at-bat, but more importantly, he gets to face Jordan Zimmermann, who really struggles to keep the ball in the park. Jansen has solid raw power and the dimension at the Rogers Centre are going to be very helpful. RFB. Harper (L)[email protected] 3:05J. Teheran (R)$54000%$44007.6%$23–This just might be the play of the day for both cash games and GPP tournaments after looking at expected ownership numbers, last year’s stats and…fo the first time today…Batter vs Pitcher data!. We know you can’t throw a whole lot of stock into most BvP numbers, but Harper actually has 50 PA against Julio Teheran which he has turned into eight home runs and 19 RBI with a .688 wOBA. I mean….come on! How do you not want to get that into your lineup knowing what he wants to do in his first game as a Phillie in front of his new home crowd? Lock him in! For opening day, FanDuel is offering a 14-game slate, and DraftKings is breaking things up into an early five-game slate with a nine-game main slate. Sorry to those wanting to get in that Red Sox-Mariners game, but if you really want it, you can do the Showdown thing. Today’s Playbook will cover the 14 games FanDuel is offering, so you’ll have some options for both the early and main slate on DraftKIngs, as well (though we may have to go outside the actual Playbook for DK lineups). We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, though, so for now, let’s get to the top plays at each position.MORE: SN DFS  | Fantasy Alarm PRO toolsMLB DFS Picks: DraftKings, FanDuel advice for Thursday, March 28                                                                                                                                                                                  Pos PlayerMatchupOpp. SPDK*Own %FD*Own %Y!SPJ. Verlander (R)[email protected] 4:00B. Snell (L)$1100036.5%$114009.6%$52–The price tag is a pretty good reflection of what we expect from Verlander today against a highly inexperienced Rays team. The strikeout total should be incredibly strong, runs will be kept to a minimum, and if you’re looking for an added incentive for the veteran hurler, just think back to the media circus that ensued when girlfriend Kate Upton was so outspoken about the panel giving the Cy Young to Blake Snell over her guy. Statement game coming? Probably. RFA. Judge (R)[email protected] 1:05A. Cashner (R)$55000%$46007.1%$21–The Yankees fan in me has me absolutely giddy for this game. We’re all expecting big things out of Judge this season and now he opens the year against a tomato can like Andrew Cashner? His strikeout rate might have me limit him to my GPP lineups (did someone say Yankees stack?), but how can you not be looking for the double-dong on Opening Day? The crowd at Yankee Stadium is in for quite the treat. 3BM. Andújar (R)[email protected] 1:05A. Cashner (R)$42000%$37004.1%$17–Man, third base is just flat-out loaded with talent today. Andujar against Andrew Cashner in Yankee Stadium? Um. Yes please! He routinely clubbed righties last year and is looking to come out swinging hard this season to show the Yankees they made the right choice locking him in as their starting third baseman once again. LFD. Palka (L)[email protected] 4:15B. Keller (R)$42005.7%$25003.6%$10–The price on DK has me scratching my head, but this FD price has GPP deliciousness written all over it. Palka is a sink-or-swim free-swinger who could, very easily take Brad Keller deep, no matter how much I may like Keller for GPP tourneys. You just can’t ignore a lefty bat that posts a .824 OPS against righties and is near min-price on FD. LFD. Dahl (L)[email protected] 4:10J. Ureña (R)$47008.9%$32005.8%$16–I’m really digging the price tag on FD here as we’re going to need to get some sort of salary relief if we’re hoping to use some of the big bats today. Expectations have always been high for Dahl and there’s no denying the talent. The issue has always been health, so here on Day 1, it would appear that Dahl is completely healthy and should make for a real nice play against Jose Urena and the marlins. RFR. Grichuk (R)[email protected] 3:37J. Zimmermann (R)$39000%$29007.1%$13–How about some cheap GPP power in the Rogers Centre today? We’ve already talked at length about Jordan Zimmermann’s struggles to keep the ball in the yard, so getting a guy like Grichuk into your tournament lineups, especially on FD, seems like a no-brainer. He just needs to get a hold of one to provide a strong ROI on the day. SPK. Freeland (L)[email protected] 4:10J. Ureña (R)$90009.1%$92005.3%$45–Freeland put together an outstanding season last year with 17 wins and a 2.85 ERA which is obviously surprising when you think about a reduced ground-ball rate and that he throws half his games at Coors Field. But the new pitch mix that saw an increased use of his cutter and change up yielded strong results and he was able to out-think hitters rather than try to out-power them. Now he faces arguably the worst lineup in baseball in one of the dreamiest ballparks for pitchers.last_img

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